Potential risks of an “AI bubble”

Amid a world economy beset by a series of challenges, the boom in investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has become a rare “bright spot”, providing a strong boost to global trade. However, as the AI “fever” continues to heat up, economies are also facing a number of major questions.

Customers try out smart glasses at a store in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China. (Photo: Xinhua)

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has just raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, more than double its previous estimate. The adjustment was somewhat surprising, as global trade has recently experienced considerable turbulence, hit hard by headwinds such as the energy crisis, supply chain disruptions and rising logistics costs caused by conflict in the Middle East.

According to the WTO, in the first half of 2026, demand for products serving AI development, such as semiconductors and servers, accounted for as much as 47% of global merchandise trade growth. Trade turnover of these products increased by 67% compared with the same period in 2025.

The trend of investing in AI infrastructure has become a key driver helping the world economy strengthen its resilience in the face of successive challenges, partly offsetting the negative impact of supply chain disruptions caused by conflicts.

However, from another perspective, this trend may also pose risks to the global financial system, as huge sums of money continue to flow into data centres, AI chips and new-generation artificial intelligence models. The rapid pace of investment has raised concerns about the possible formation of an AI “bubble”.

Experts say the concern lies not in AI technology itself, but in the speed and scale of investment flows. If actual profits fail to keep pace with expectations, the risk of a sharp correction is entirely possible, exposing businesses to major financial risks.

In this context, the possibility of a reversal in AI demand is a scenario that needs to be closely monitored in the coming period, especially for economies with a high degree of openness and deep participation in high-tech value chains. If the global growth momentum driven by the AI wave is sustained, these countries will gain an advantage in the development race.

However, the IMF believes that governments also need to control risks and prepare response plans in case AI investments do not deliver the expected results.

Although it opens up many development opportunities, the global AI “fever” also carries the risk of widening inequality between countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the AI development wave is creating a growth boost, but so far its benefits have been limited to only a small number of countries.

High-income countries, which already have developed technology infrastructure and a high-quality workforce, are benefiting the most from the AI wave.

Deep participation in the AI supply chain not only helps these countries increase production and boost exports of goods and services, but also consolidates their position in global supply chains.

By contrast, less developed economies risk being left behind due to shortages of digital infrastructure, capital and high-tech human resources.

Experts have called on governments to quickly build favourable environments for innovation, develop digital infrastructure and improve the quality of human resources in order to adapt to technological changes and gain an advantage in the development race in the decades ahead.

NDO